Sony's Immediate Future
Posted on Thursday, December 6 2012 @ 13:13:45 PST
On Razörfist's "The Rageaholic" this post (http://the-rageaholic.tumblr.com/post/36940406135/linked-in-the-image-above-is-an-official-financial) contains a link to a .pdf financial report from Sony embedded in the image at the top and a bit of commentary below that. Razörfist concludes from the selected information that there is no PS4 dev kit. This means there will not be a Playstation 4 in the near future. A little arithmetic follows.
Conversions will be done using information from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/EXJPUS.txt). From this we can do some conversion with the chart supplied in the PDF to get some more local numbers.
Sony R&D Expenditures from 2008-2012 - All conversions done with the April 1st conversion rate of each year.
2008 ¥520,568,000,000 or $5,069,533,111
2009 ¥497,297,000,000 or $5,027,264,456
2010 ¥432,001,000,000 or $4,622,670,078
2011 ¥426,814,000,000 or $5,131,388,326
2012 ¥433,477,000,000 or $5,334,943,952
It's possible Razörfist is mistaken. After all, he does characterize R&D expenditures as having not gone up at all in the past three years but from 2010-2011 they went up by more than 500 million dollars and from 2011-2012 it also went up another 200 million. It is also possible the visibility of expenditure on the PS4 is being swallowed up by other projects being cancelled or abandoned and other avenues of research just generally being closed off. However, this argument overlooks two problems - the dollar values do not count the lowering purchase power of the dollar itself and it is extremely unlikely that an undertaking of this scale could be buried in noise via what would otherwise be a massive dip in R&D. I think his conclusion is sound. I think the PS4 is at best a long way off. Once again the Microsoft console will beat the Sony console to the market by a wide margin. It will be the console more powerful than the Wii U and the seventh generation hardware. It won't have to fight for exclusives with Sony because Sony won't have a system.
UPDATE: I was wrong. The PS4 has been announced.