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Long Console Lifecycle: Biggest Mistake Ever
Posted on Tuesday, July 10 @ 10:04:18 Eastern by Anthony Severino
Square Enix is no stranger to mistakes: Final Fantasy, arguably one of the most beloved and storied franchises of our time, has been run into the ground by mismanagement and unnecessary Westernization. Final Fantasy XIII and XIII-2, while not terrible games, aren't revered as were past iterations. Final Fantasy XIV... it's difficult to describe in words the extent of that blunder. But Squeenix's technology director, Julien Merceron, believes there is a much larger mistake made during this generation—by Sony and Microsoft.
This morning Julien was quoted as saying that Sony and Microsoft keeping their current console lifecycle going onward of six, seven, even eight years is "the biggest mistake they've ever made". Bold claims, and I'm sure many will disagree, as I know there are plenty of people perfectly happy with their PS3s and Xbox 360s—just as many not yet ready for the next generation jump.
But from an industry standpoint, not bringing console successors out sooner have allowed new and emerging platforms to take hold in the market, and many consumers may not come back to the home console.
Going back as far as the Nintendo Entertainment System in 1985, the next generation traditionally arrived every five years, give or take a year. In 1989, the SEGA Genesis hit the market, with the SNES shortly following in 1991. Both the SEGA Saturn and Sony PlayStation were released in 1995, with the N64 coming out in 1996. Then the PS2 arrived in 2000, with the original Xbox and Nintendo Gamecube tailing by a year. The Xbox 360 launched in 2005 and is nearing its seventh year on the market. The PlayStation 3, its sixth.
Six, even seven years on the market isn't totally unusual; even the PlayStation 2 still sells considerably well given its eleven years at retail. But the fact that a release date for new consoles hasn't been set and that new technology hasn't even been announced is worrying. It's going to be at least Holiday 2013 before we'll see a new console from either Sony or Microsoft, possibly longer.
The PlayStation 2 easily bested the original Xbox and Gamecube by having a full-year head start. The Xbox 360's one-year lead over the PS3 has served Microsoft well. Coming out of the gate first with new hardware helps—there is no denying that. And that's exactly what's happening again, right now, but from unexpected competitors.
The recent emergence of iOS games, tablet games, Facebook games, and more—the free-to-plays. The 99 cent downloadable games that make for easy impulse purchases are equally enticing to developers who don't have to sink substantial financial investments into creating titles for these platforms. Development costs of PS3 and Xbox 360 games are higher than ever, with decreasing returns because hardware and software sales are down in stark contrast to where it was only a few years ago.
The industry peaked in 2008. There were new, exciting consoles, and consumers were ready to spend their money—even though budgets were tight from a poor economy. The economy hasn't become significantly better, or worse, yet the video game console industry has been in decline ever since.
By not releasing new consoles until 2013 or beyond, Sony and Microsoft are continuing to let these other non-console platforms grow. They're continuing to let sales decline. And they are indeed making the biggest mistake ever.
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E3 2013 has been very silent for me. There's tons of media, but most of it buzzes past my ears without them catching the important keyword that my ears are fine tuned to receive: "PC" or "Personal Computer". Microsoft, Sony, EA and Ubisoft have all shown their cards...
wildmario
Joined: Jan 2007
C_nate
Joined: Apr 2009
Look at TV's as another example. A bunch of people went out and got nice plasma, lcd, and led sets. Only a couple years later they tried to cash in on the (bullshit) 3D craze and are trying like crazy to sell 3D sets. Hey, your TV is only a couple years old but buy another one at the same size for double the price so you can sit around watching your 3D tv with almost no 3D programming to watch! Yeah, thanks but no thanks.
Timing is everything. I don't think the consoles have waited too long. With the economy the way it has been, I think it was the smart move to hold off the next gen.
Noritama
Joined: Feb 2012
lol ppl agree with you. :O? typing one hadn sucks
Noritama
Joined: Feb 2012
Anthony_Severino
Joined: Oct 2010
OdiousLupous
Joined: Jul 2011
Noritama
Joined: Feb 2012
Nick_Tan
Joined: Jul 2006
Come on, guys, it's not a bad thing to reveal something about next-gen consoles that isn't Star Wars 1313. Just because they are announced or even out, doesn't mean that the Xbox 360 and PS3 are irrelevant. Developers will still be developing titles for those two platforms for at least two years after Xbox 720/PS4 are released. They'll still be relevant, so what are they so afraid of? Are they really not ready?
wildmario
Joined: Jan 2007
Anthony_Severino
Joined: Oct 2010
C_nate
Joined: Apr 2009
Chunibrow
Joined: Mar 2010
xDUMPWEEDx
Joined: Jan 2012