A Full History Of Madden NFL Predictions and Why You Should Take Them Seriously

In this year's simulation of Super Bowl LI, Madden 17 has predicted that the New England Patriots will make a come from behind run during the last moments of the fourth quarter to score a touchdown, etching the final score as 27-24. It's an outcome that perfectly lines up with betting odds which place the New England Patriots as a three point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons.

For anyone putting down money on the match, the simulation shouldn't be taken lightly.

EA's Madden NFL Super Bowl simulations are well established in the world of American Football at this point. Since 2005 EA has simulated every Super Bowl, publishing its results for the world to see. And for more than a decade the video game has accurately predicted the winner more times than not with a considerable margin.

During its first seven simulations Madden NFL would predict six correctly. The only misstep during that time was XLII's historical rally that gave the New York Giants the Lombardi Trophy for its first time in 17 years, and ended the historical near perfect season of the New England Patriots.

In-fact, among its 12 predictions to-date only one was incorrect by any considerable margin, that being the Seattle Seahawks' utter destruction of the Denver Broncos in XLVII.

On the other side of the coin, Super Bowl XLIII was predicted with incredible precision. It wasn't just the way it got the final score right, but how the simulation played out during each quarter, leading to the Patriots taking victory with a four point spread in the final moments of the game.

These accurate predictions are a recurring theme every year as EA Sports publishes the results of it simulations on its YouTube channel, prompting mass discussion among American Football fans and professional analysts alike.

For reference, below are all the Madden NFL predictions compared to the real life results of each respective Super Bowl:

 

Madden NFL 2005 – New England Patriots 41; Philadelphia Eagles 31

Super Bowl XXXIX – New England Patriots 24; Philadelphia Eagles 21

Madden NFL 2006 – Pittsburgh Steelers: 24; Seattle Seahawks: 19

Super Bowl XL – Pittsburgh Steelers 21; Seattle Seahawks 10

Madden NFL 07 – Indianapolis Colts: 38; Chicago Bears: 27

Super Bowl XLI – Indianapolis Colts 29; Chicago Bears 17

Madden NFL 08 – New England Patriots 38; New York Giants: 30

Super Bowl XLII – New York Giants 17; New England Patriots 14

Madden NFL 09 – Pittsburgh Steelers: 28; Arizona Cardinals: 24

Super Bowl XLIII – Pittsburgh Steelers 27; Arizona Cardinals 23

Madden NFL 10 – New Orleans Saints: 35; Indianapolis Colts: 31

Super Bowl XLIV – New Orleans Saints: 31; Indianapolis Colts: 17

Madden NFL 11 – Pittsburgh Steelers: 24; Green Bay Packers: 20

Super Bowl XLV – Green Bay Packers: 31; Pittsburg Steelers: 25

Madden NFL 12 – New York Giants: 27; New England Patriots: 24

Super Bowl XLVI – New York Giants: 21; New England Patriots: 17

Madden NFL 13 – Baltimore Ravens: 34; San Francisco 49ers: 31

Super Bowl XLVII – Baltimore Ravens: 27; San Francisco 49ers: 24

Madden NFL 25 – Denver Broncos: 31; Seattle Seahawks: 28

Super Bowl XLVIII – Seattle Seahawks: 43; Denver Broncos: 8

Madden NFL 15 – New England Patriots: 28; Seattle Seahawks: 24

Super Bowl XLIX – New England Patriots: 28; Seattle Seahawks: 24

Madden NFL 16 – Denver Broncos: 24; Carolina Panthers: 20

Super Bowl 50 – Denver Broncos: 24; Carolina Panthers: 10

As seen above, at this point Madden NFL is 9-3 in its predictions. That will either jump to 10-3 or fall to 9-4 after this Sunday.

This accuracy is spurred in-part because in most cases the favored team wins, and that favored team has players with higher ratings in Madden NFL. Even then, that doesn't account for the times where the result has gone against the favored team, such as the recent cases of Super Bowl XLIX and XLVI which had betting lines of 4.5 points or higher against the predicted winner.

With this in-mind, the only explanation for Madden NFL's predictive accuracy is dumb luck or wizardry. Many American Football fans like to think the latter, even if just for fun. No matter the case, it provides better odds for success than your Uncle ever has, so if you're serious about being able to brag about being right, then EA has your back.

It's worth noting that a Madden NFL simulation of the entire 2016-2017 season resulted in the Atlanta Falcons taking home the Lombardi Trophy for the franchise's first time ever, a result that is incongruent with today's Super Bowl simulation. This has never happened before, making some gamblers uneasy.

But when you compare the validity of the season predictions to those specifically for the Super Bowl, historically (and obviously) the latter holds much more weight.

Super Bowl LI will be host this Sunday at the NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. It will face the veteran squad of the New England Patriots, led by four Super Bowl ring bearing Tom Brady, against the enthusiastic new blood of the Atlanta Falcons.