Super Mario Run Is More Successful Than Anyone Predicted

We all knew Super Mario Run, despite lukewarm reception and a controversial pricing method, was successful. Really successful. But every metric we had to measure its success was apparently way off, and even the most favorable projections for Super Mario Run's downloads were way below the mark. It seems Super Mario Run is more successful than anyone could have possibly imagined.

According to a press release by Nintendo, Super Mario Run surpassed 40 million downloads in its first four days. This is a wildly drastic increase from the rate suggested by experts earlier – 2.85 million in the first day –  and I'd go so far as to say it was a typo, until Nintedo of America doubled down on this number via its Twitter account.

An earlier estimation put Super Mario Run's initial download total at 25 million after 4 days, and even that would be far more than the 2.85 million per day estimate, and even that estimate missed the mark by 15 million.

It's important to contextualize this number, as the game is a free download (with a $9.99 in-app purchase for the "full game"), so this doesn't necessarily translate into sales, meaning that Nintendo may not be reaping 40 million worth of transactions. Still, though, the cultural phenomenon that is Pokemon GO didn't reach 25 million until 11 days after its release.

While this download total is still less than Pokemon GO overall (100 million+), and Pokemon GO released at different times in different countries, Super Mario Run downloads would have to come to a screeching halt to not meet and surpass that total in a matter of weeks or even days.