Colin Sebastian of Baird Securities has predicted a grim future for the Wii U in a new report. His prediction bluntly says the following:
Following a somewhat lackluster launch and holiday selling season, Nintendo will need to bring to market major first-party releases (e.g., Zelda) and retain the support of key third-party developers to reduce market share losses. In a negative scenario, Nintendo will be forced to prematurely lower the Wii-U price, and over the course of this cycle, we expect consideration will be given to extending first-party franchises to other platforms.
The Wii U had strong sales numbers during its initial launch period, and you could even call it a success in that regard. But it's the software sales that paint a very different picture. With an average of just over one game sold per console, the attach rate is abysmal. To put it into perspective, NPD figures place it well below what the Wii or even the GameCube were able to muster, and that's saying a lot given how rare each console appeared on hardware charts.
If people are buying consoles but not games, then it's no wonder why some predictions are pessimistic. The near future isn't too bright either, with many of 2013's most anticipated games landing on competitor hardware. Nintendo has been in the game for a long time, so to count them out would be a mistake. That said, the company has a lot of work to do starting with giving its present install base a reason to turn their new console on.